Current macro economic status about india : easy way to understand


India's economic growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised upwards by major organizations, and here’s a simple breakdown to help you understand:

  1. United Nations' Forecast: The UN now expects India’s GDP to grow by 6.9% in 2024, up from their earlier guess of 6.2%.

    • Example: Imagine the government spending a lot of money to build new highways, railways, and airports. This creates jobs and helps businesses grow. At the same time, people in India are still spending money on things like groceries, smartphones, and clothes. This keeps the economy moving forward, even though India isn't selling as much to other countries (due to weak global demand).
  2. Deloitte's Forecast: Deloitte reported that India's economy grew by 8.4% in one quarter (3 months) during FY 2024. As a result, they expect India’s annual growth to be around 7.6% to 7.8% for the whole year.

    • Example: Think of this like getting a really good grade in one term of school, which boosts your overall average for the year. Similarly, a strong 3-month growth period lifted the forecast for India's economy for the entire year.
  3. IMF Projections: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also increased its forecast, predicting that India’s economy will grow by 6.8% in FY 2024-25.

    • Example: Let’s say you started a small business, and even though customers from other cities aren't buying as much from you, your local community is spending more. This helps you make more profit than expected. Similarly, even though India’s exports (selling goods abroad) are not strong, the spending within the country is helping the economy grow.

In short, big projects by the government and people continuing to spend money within the country are keeping India’s economy strong, even when there are challenges in selling to other countries.

If you find several companies in the stock market, it can be hard to tell if a stock is priced too high (overvalued) or too low (undervalued). Even if you buy shares in a good company, if you pay too much for it, you might not get a good return in the future. To avoid this, it's important to learn how to value a company.

For example, imagine two companies, A and B, both growing well and making profits. Company A is trading at ₹200 per share, while Company B is at ₹100 per share. Just looking at the prices doesn't tell you which one is a better deal. Company A might be overpriced, and Company B might be underpriced, or vice versa.

By learning valuation methods, like comparing the stock price to the company's earnings, future growth, or industry peers, you can get a better idea of whether a stock is worth buying at its current price. this process is called valuation

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